Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Nacional in position to win Uruguayan Apertura title

Surely there are more serious topics than a league title in the football world at the moment. Despite Chapecoense's tragic disaster and last weekend's scandal at the Clásico, Uruguay will go ahead with its penultimate Apertura matchday. Under certain conditions, Nacional could win the title already.

The scene at Nacional's training complex (Photo:
Peñarol - Nacional ended up in a massive scandal, but not necessarily a bad one for the Tricolor. The football association AUF awarded them the three points for the Clásico. This puts Martín Lasarte's team into a position to win the title during the upcoming weekend. A home win over Juventud is the first thing required. In addition, Nacional need Danubio to drop points away to Fénix. 

A look at the numbers

For Nacional, chances are not looking too bad. They have only played five home games so far this season, winning each of them. Visiting Juventud on the other hand are not scaring anybody away from home this year. Only one win in six tries speaks a clear language. This is being underlined by a league-low three away goals. 

Ultimately, it will likely be about how well Danubio fares in their own match. While having a positive (3-1-2) away record, their opponents were not the strongest. Through their last three games, Leonardo Ramos' squad also managed to score just two total goals. Fénix' home form has been a single up and down throughout the season as well. They are 1-1-1 in their last three. 

Champion, yes or no?

It is still a South American football league. Predicting outcomes of games is incredibly hard. A Nacional win over Juventud seems highly likely, given the opportunity to win a title as well. Another bright side for Diego Polenta and teammates is their two-week long break from their last game. It gave every player an extended rest and Lasarte some time to work on tactical issues. 

The other game is the tougher one. Considering Danubio's struggles to find the back of the net, I see them not getting more than a draw away from home. Nacional will win the title in week 14 already.


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